The
Midwest Drought
In late July I
returned from West Africa to Chicago, which to my surprise was hotter and dryer
than Sierra Leone. I heard no news of the Midwest. drought until I was
back in the States, and at first I didn’t realize the gravity of the situation,
not just for the U.S., but for the entire world.
Current
estimates say that at least 60% of the U.S. has a drought, which is in fact the
worst drought in America since 1956, and has caused the cost of corn to rise
50%. Unfortunately, corn is a very large U.S. export and it is used in other products such as animal feed and many processed foods, which might
well result in prices of other food products rising as well. Furthermore,
about 40% of America’s corn is used in ethanol, whose production
has since been slowed since it is not economical at this time.
The
drought is not limited to the U.S. Similar droughts are occurring in other large
crop-exporting countries, such as Ukraine, Russia, and Australia, which has
caused international crop stockpiles to fall – causing some to panic.
This drought not only exposes the problems within America’s farming
industry, but on a larger scale it exposes the faults in the global food
system of dependency.
The
Global Food System of Dependency
Out
of the 7 billion people of Earth, 1 billion are malnourished – and that is not because there
is a shortage of food in the world, if fact there is enough food to feed the entire
world population.
However, much of the global food system is
monopolized by the U.S. and the global North, which means that many developing
nations are required to import much of their food, even if they are located on
fertile lands.
With American farmers subsidized, many farmers
in developing nations are unable to compete with the U.S.’s prices, so they
instead choose to grow things such as cotton which are more profitable.
Any changes in the global food market are
especially volatile and dangerous in the developing world since they mostly depend
on industrialized nations for their crop imports. That is why, in times like
this when there is drought, or a rise in fuel prices, or futures sell at a
higher value – then it often leads to food insecurity and famine in the global
South because they are unable to afford the higher cost of food.
Furthermore, as Eric Holt-Giménez, Executive Director of Food First,
notes in an interview – free trade agreements have further exacerbated the already existing
problems by making developing nations even more dependent on U.S. exports. The perceived
“scarcity” of food then results in land grabs, which I will discuss in more
detail later.
The
Drought on a Global Scale: What is being Effected?
The
crop yield in the Midwest is down drastically from previous years, and although
we are seeing some of the effects of this drought now, the real effects might
not be seen for another 6 months down the line.
The
UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) releases a monthly Food Price Index, which measures the
change in international prices of five food commodity groups: oils/fats, cereals,
dairy, meat, and sugar. Since July 2011, the five measured food commodity
groups have had their prices either steady or decrease over the year (with the
exception of a short spike in oils/fats in April). However, the most recent FAO
report shows a drastic increase in both sugar and cereals, which is a result of
the droughts in the U.S., Australia, and Russia.
The
Drought on a Global Scale: Where is it Effecting?
I think it is safe to say that
nowhere will be exempt from seeing the effects of this pending food crisis.
However, particular areas will be especially effected, such as South-East Asia
and Africa.
For example, the Sahel is already experiencing
a food crisis, so the increased price of cereals and sugars might well only
worsen the problems they are facing. The humanitarian news and analysis
agency, IRIN, notes that prices of locally produced grains in the Sahel
countries are now 50% higher than last year.
Several South-East
Asian countries such as the Philippines, Bangladesh, and Indonesia would be
victims of a global price hike since they are large importers of wheat. Furthermore,
India had minimal rains during its monsoon season and is also experiencinga drought according to IRIN.
IRIN explains the severity and importance of this drought and impending food
crisis perfectly:
Any tightness in the supply of maize
and soybeans, used mainly as livestock feed, could impact on wheat, the world's
most widely consumed staple grain.
A
similar food “scarcity” crisis occurred in 2008 – the only difference being
that instead of higher cereal prices it was higher wheat and grain prices, which significantly impacted major wheat consumers like Africa
and Asia.
I
have created the map below which illustrates the crop-exporting countries currently
experiencing a drought, the countries that saw food riots in 2008, and the countries
most at risk for food insecurity this year if cereal and maize prices continue
to rise.
 |
Click to Enlarge |
From
this map, the North/South divide of the global food system is evident. The
North controls the production, where as the South relies on imports and
therefore is most vulnerable to insecurity and riots – but I will delve
further into detail on that topic next week.
The
current drought is not isolated to the regions experiencing them. The real
effects of this poor crop season will not be realized for several more months,
but it is safe to assume that many countries might become ‘food insecure’,
especially in areas such as the Sahel which are already experiencing famine and
the added complication of wars.
Perhaps
this drought will shine more light on an unintended consequence of food “scarcity”
and problems in the global food market, such as land grabbing, which I will
also discuss more next week.
It makes me wonder that if there are so many
problems with the global food market, why don’t things change? What options do
those in both the crop-exporting and crop-importing countries have to make the
global food system more just and sustainable? Check back for part 2 of this
post next week.
In
the meantime, I would love to hear your thoughts on this crisis. Do you think
it will lead to more food riots like in 2008? What are your ideas on how we can
change the global food system? What can those who are in developing countries
who are dependent on importing crops do to become more self-sufficient? I'd love to read your ideas in the comments section below.
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